Syria’s political landscape has undergone a profound transformation following the December 2024 ousting of President Bashar al-Assad. The interim government, primarily composed of Islamist-led rebel factions, now faces the formidable challenge of unifying a fractured nation. Amidst this turmoil, the region of Idlib, under the control of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and its leader Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, stands out as a focal point of instability. Given the complexities of Syria’s ethnic and sectarian divisions, a proposal emerges: the establishment of ethnoregional governance structures, potentially under the protection of neighboring powers such as Israel and Turkey, to ensure stability and security.
Idlib: A Region in Turmoil
Idlib has long been a stronghold for HTS, a group with roots in al-Qaeda’s former Syrian affiliate. Under Jolani’s leadership, HTS has consolidated power, often through coercive means, and has positioned itself as a significant player in the post-Assad political order . However, the group’s governance has been marked by authoritarian practices, raising concerns about the region’s future stability.
The United Nations has reported that both HTS and pro-Assad forces have committed war crimes, including massacres in coastal areas, resulting in the deaths of approximately 1,400 civilians, predominantly from Alawi communities . These atrocities underscore the urgent need for a governance model that can accommodate Syria’s diverse ethnic and sectarian groups.
The Case for Ethnoregional Governance
Syria’s demographic mosaic includes Kurds, Druze, Alawites, Christians, and Sunni Arabs, each with distinct cultural and political identities. Attempts at centralized governance have often exacerbated tensions and fueled conflict. A shift toward ethnoregional governance could provide a framework for these communities to manage their affairs autonomously while contributing to a unified Syrian state.
Such a model would entail the establishment of autonomous regions, each governed by representatives of the dominant ethnic or sectarian group, yet bound by a federal constitution that ensures the protection of minority rights and promotes cooperation among regions. This approach could mitigate sectarian violence and foster a more inclusive political environment.
The Role of Regional Powers
In this context, neighboring countries with vested interests in Syria’s stability could play a pivotal role. Israel, with its substantial Druze population, has expressed concerns over the safety of the Druze community in Syria’s Sweida province. Reports indicate that Israeli Druze have crossed into Syria to support their kin amid escalating violence . Israel’s involvement could extend to establishing a Druze protectorate in southern Syria, ensuring the community’s security and fostering regional stability.
Turkey, which has supported various rebel factions in northern Syria, has also shown interest in the region’s future governance. Recent agreements between Turkey and the Syrian interim government focus on military cooperation and the integration of Kurdish forces into the national army . Turkey’s influence could facilitate the establishment of an autonomous Sunni Arab region in northern Syria, aligned with Ankara’s strategic interests.
Challenges and Considerations
While the proposal for ethnoregional governance offers a potential path to stability, it is fraught with challenges. The risk of entrenching sectarian divisions and the potential for external interference must be carefully managed. International actors, including the United States and the United Nations, would need to play a role in mediating agreements and ensuring that the rights of all communities are upheld.
Another problematic factor is the role of foreign intelligence agencies who have a vested interest in keeping Jolani in power. MI6 in particular sees Abu Mohammad al-Jolani and his group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), as instruments to limit Russian influence. Sources also suggest that Western intelligence also aims to curb Chinese economic involvement in Syria. Though China’s investment in Syria is limited, Syria nevertheless became an official member of the Belt and Road Initiative in 2022. 5 eyes agency objectives may appear strategically coherent from a geopolitical standpoint, but they risk exacerbating instability in a country already fractured by civil war and authoritarian governance.
Conclusion
Syria’s path to peace and stability may lie in embracing a governance model that recognizes and accommodates its ethnic and sectarian diversity. By establishing ethnoregional governance structures, supported by regional powers, Syria could move toward a more inclusive and stable future. However, this approach requires careful planning, cooperation between regional powers, and non interference from external powers trying to realise geopolitical objectives in a short-sighted way.
