US President Donald Trump’s latest threat to slap steep tariffs on Indian exports, in retaliation for India’s continued purchase of discounted Russian oil, might sound like classic Trumpian bluster. But peel back the outrage, the nationalism, and the electoral grandstanding, and a deeper, more structural reality comes into view: All major powers, regardless of ideology or administration, are being swept along by the same material megatrends shaping the emerging world order.
Trump’s outburst, delivered via social media this week, accused India of profiting off Russian oil, buying it cheap and reselling it on the open market, and threatened a 25% duty on Indian goods, plus an unspecified “penalty.” India’s Ministry of External Affairs swiftly hit back, calling the threats “unjustified and unreasonable,” pointing out that Indian purchases only began after traditional suppliers rerouted shipments to Europe. And unlike the U.S. or EU, India stressed, its trade with Russia is a vital national necessity.
India reminded Washington of what American officials once openly admitted: the U.S. had encouraged Indian purchases of Russian oil as part of a pragmatic strategy to stabilize global energy markets in the wake of Western sanctions. Former Ambassador Eric Garcetti even stated that “we wanted somebody to buy Russian oil.”
So what changed?
Not much, in fact. The U.S. — whether under Biden or Trump — continues to pursue the same basic strategic posture: maintaining dominance over global trade flows, coercing rising powers into compliance with U.S. preferences, punishing deviations with tariffs sanctions, and finally; refusing to recognize the world has changed.
Material Power, Not Moral Posturing
Trump’s threats might differ in tone from Biden’s, but the policy thrust remains nearly identical. Both administrations are reacting to the same hard geopolitical currents: the relative decline of Western leverage and the rise of the Global South, symbolized most visibly by BRICS.
India’s oil trade with Russia soared from a mere 2.5% of its imports in early 2022 to nearly 40% in 2023. At the same time, EU-Russia trade, all the rhetorical commitments to isolating Moscow notwithstanding, still dwarfs India’s in absolute terms. This has not stopped the U.S. and EU from selectively targeting New Delhi.
Why? Because India, is not behaving as it “should”. Like many emerging powers, India is no longer playing the game by Western rules. The rise of the Global South has made multipolarity a lived reality, not just a slogan. And the current world order, structured around transatlantic norms and enforced by U.S. economic power, is beginning to creak under the strain.
BRICS, Not the West, Defines the Future
The core contradiction at play is this: the U.S. wants to isolate Russia while maintaining cheap global energy; it wants to court India as a counterweight to China but also discipline it when it acts autonomously; it wants trade but only on its terms. India, meanwhile, is navigating a world in which its real economic interests lie increasingly with BRICS, not NATO.
Despite historic tensions with China, India’s strategic calculus is shifting. Its soaring trade with Russia is not simply opportunistic, it reflects a growing recognition that the Global South must hang together or be picked off one by one. The old logic of alignment is giving way to fluid coalitions based on resource needs, development imperatives, and political sovereignty.
This trend isn’t unique to India. Across Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia, nations are recalibrating their partnerships, moving away from dependence on Western markets and institutions, and instead fostering regional linkages and south-south cooperation. The recent expansion of BRICS, the establishment of BRICS+ financial mechanisms, and rising trade in non-dollar currencies all point in the same direction.
Trump Is a Symptom, Not an Anomaly
Seen in this light, Trump’s threats are not the ravings of a rogue populist but a symptom of deeper American anxiety. The rules-based order, long underwritten by U.S. power and enforced by economic tools like tariffs and sanctions, is losing its bite. Whether it’s Biden’s soft coercion or Trump’s hard tariffs, the goal is the same: preserve influence over a world that is increasingly slipping away.
But the world is no longer unipolar. India knows this. So do Brazil, South Africa, Indonesia, and others. They are not “defying” the West out of ideological rebellion, but because the gravitational pull of global power is shifting.
As India’s foreign ministry stated with unusual frankness, “Like any major economy, India will take all necessary measures to safeguard its national interests and economic security.” That is the language of a sovereign power, not a client state.
Conclusion: A New Multipolar Normal
This episode is not a trade dispute. It is a skirmish in a larger struggle between a fading Western-centric order and an emerging world shaped by the Global South. The West can threaten, cajole, and pressure, but it cannot stop the megatrends now unfolding: the redistribution of global power, prestige, and prosperity.
Indeed, the Ukraine war itself is a geopolitical inflection point in the same material struggle. In truth, far from the West’s frameing of the war asa principled defense of universal norms and international law, it is actually the most kinetic expression of the deepening clash between the Global North and the Global South.
Trump may shout louder than Biden, but both are reacting to the same thing, the irreversible shift of the global center of gravity. India, for all its internal contradictions, is now clearly acting as a sovereign part of a new world order. The future will not be decided in Washington or Brussels alone, but in the growing corridors of power stretching from Moscow to Mumbai, from Brasília to Beijing.
Wei Zhufang is an analyst of global geoeconomics, focused on trade realignments, multipolarity, and the strategic implications of BRICS. She holds a PhD from Shenzhen University.
