Introduction History’s patterns are rarely linear, yet certain eras bear striking resemblance to each other. Today’s geopolitical climate evokes the years leading up to 1914: a time of imperial rivalries, brittle alliances, complacent elites, and catastrophic misjudgments. With a grinding war in Ukraine, intensifying U.S.–China competition, and mounting systemic fragilities, the world appears to be inching toward another moment of rupture. The risk is not theoretical. It is embedded in economic strain, military posturing, and the erosion of institutional guardrails

Executive Summary   Taiwan President Lai Ching-te is facing the biggest challenge to his presidency So far, with setbacks on both domestic and international fronts. At the international level, the widening rift between Washington and Taipei shows that Taiwan cannot secure unconditional support from the US. Athe domestic level, the Great Recall failed completely, signalling a rejection of Lai’s“Resist China and Protect Taiwan” slogan. Lai is likely to double down on the “Resist China and Protect Taiwan” message. As a

In a move that has stunned even seasoned industry watchers, Intel has agreed to let the U.S. government take a 9.9% equity stake in the company for $8.9 billion. This isn’t your typical grant or loan. By converting CHIPS Act funding into ownership, Washington positions itself not just as a supporter—but as a direct partner in Intel’s fortunes. It’s a bold experiment in industrial policy, but one fraught with risk for both taxpayers and the semiconductor ecosystem. Traditionally, federal support

Syria’s political landscape has undergone a profound transformation following the December 2024 ousting of President Bashar al-Assad. The interim government, primarily composed of Islamist-led rebel factions, now faces the formidable challenge of unifying a fractured nation. Amidst this turmoil, the region of Idlib, under the control of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and its leader Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, stands out as a focal point of instability. Given the complexities of Syria’s ethnic and sectarian divisions, a proposal emerges: the establishment of

By any measure, the U.S. Treasury market is the backbone of the global financial system. Treasuries price mortgages, underpin corporate borrowing, and anchor the world’s risk-free rate. Yet in recent weeks, that backbone has shown cracks with symptoms that look uncomfortably like those seen in fiscally constrained emerging markets. Two Bad Auctions, One Message Early August delivered back-to-back warnings. A 30-year bond auction drew weak demand, with dealers left taking more than their usual share of the issue. Then came

In November 2024, a quiet but deeply symbolic financial event took place in Riyadh. The Chinese Ministry of Finance issued $2 billion in U.S. dollar-denominated bonds, its first such international debt sale in three years, not from the traditional financial centers of New York or London, but from the heart of Saudi Arabia. At first glance, there was nothing revolutionary. The bonds were denominated in dollars, structured by global banks, and carried coupon rates close to U.S. Treasuries. But the